Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
