A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
